Health Officials Warn Over COVID-19 Omicron Variant Explosion

According to the Public Health Ministry, the novel COVID-19 variant could cause up to 30,000 viral infections a day by early next year, driven by the highly contagious Omicron strain.

On Sunday, there were 514 Omicron cases, up from 104 on Tuesday.

Kiattiphum Wongrajit, permanent secretary for health, said the ministry has drawn up three possible scenarios with regards to the Omicron variant of COVID-19.

According to the latest projection, the country will be facing 10,000 new cases and up to 70 possible deaths a day by the end of January. In the second-best projection, Thailand could see 15,000 new cases a day and 100 possible deaths per day.

If the Omicron variant infections spike quickly, the new case numbers could reach 30,000 new cases and 180 possible deaths per day.

The health department presented graphs at the briefing that showed that the number of Omicron infections peaked in late January or early February in the most favourable and worst scenarios, respectively.

In both scenarios, Dr Kiattiphum stated that the situation would be under control within one or two months.

In the worst-case scenario, the number of newly diagnosed infections would peak in early March before gradually declining.

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Dr Kiattiphum estimated that it would take three to four months for health authorities to control the situation under the worst-case scenario.

According to the health ministry, the new Omicron variant is not expected to have a fatality rate as high as the Delta variant, but it is likely to spread faster.

While the number of daily infections and deaths continues to decline due to widespread vaccination, Omicron threatens to reverse that trend. Thailand recorded its first case of Omicron on December 6 and the first community infection on December 20.

In his view, the success or failure of the fight against Omicron would depend on strict health measures, vaccinations, and public cooperation, including strict observance of social distancing rules.

The country is once again at a fork in the road, Kiattiphum said.

According to the Center for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), the number of Omicron cases rose fivefold from 104 on Tuesday to 514 on Sunday.

According to CCSA spokeswoman Apisamai Srirangson, two-thirds of the Omicron cases occurred as a result of arrivals, the other third was caused by people in close contact with infected individuals.

One of the biggest clusters began on Dec 10 after a couple from Kalasin returned from visiting relatives in Belgium. As of last Friday, 21 other people had been infected by them.

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According to the ministry, Delta was still responsible for 56% of new cases in the country, but Omicron should take over very soon.

According to Dr Opas Karnkawinpong, the director-general of the Department of Disease Control, the ministry is worried about a rise in new Omicron cases after the holiday season due to the movement of people and their close contacts.

It is likely that infections will rise as people return home to celebrate the New Year with their families, and as revellers attend countdown events.

As a result of the New Year celebrations, the virus is expected to spread further. To help limit the spread of the disease, he advised offices that had adopted the work-from-home format to keep it up.

Although the country faces a threat from the new Omicorn variant, Dr Kiattiphum said that due to a low 10% occupancy rate at present, hospitals have enough beds to handle the situation.

He said, “We have more than enough hospital beds”. “We have been through the Delta variant of COVID-19 which was far more deadly.”

Source: Bangkok Post