Thailand’s Birth Rate Hits a Record Low in 2021

Thailand’s birth rate hit a record low last year and is now sounding alarm bells in the corridors of Government House.

It is becoming increasingly clear that this trend has long-term socioeconomic consequences, prompting the government to take urgent measures to boost Thailand’s birth rate.

In many provinces, agencies are searching for ways to encourage singles to marry and for couples to have children.

Birth rates are alarmingly low

Due to the declining fertility rate and the improving healthcare system, Thailand has been entering an aging society like China since 2005.

The total fertility rate in Thailand dropped to 1.5 last year from 2 in 1995, and the number of newborns was the lowest in years at around 540,000.

According to researchers affiliated with the state-owned National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), Thailand will officially enter a “complete-aged society” next year, when the proportion of the elderly exceeds 20 percent of the total population and a “super-aged society” in 2033 when senior citizens surpass 28 percent of the total population.

A country’s proportion of the elderly population will increase when its TFR – the average number of children born over a woman’s lifetime – falls below 2.1.

Parents make a choice

Health experts say the average Thai family has only 1 child, while they should have two or more. However, many factors are contributing to the declining birth rate, including the modern lifestyle, the choice to remain single, and couples choosing not to have children.

As a result, many couples choose to have just one child or two children because of the high cost of raising children until they reach adulthood.

Mother, Orapak Sriyapai, 52, has two children, told Thai PBS she wants more welfare support from the government.

Orapak, whose teenage sons are 14 and 15, said, “We want free education to reduce the cost of raising our children.”

She suggested that free education and free lunch up until the children finish high school would help.

Despite the government implementing a 15-year free education program – from early childhood through basic education – parents still have to pay some expenses at schools, she complained.

Nursery schools are expensive. Having to work for a living makes it difficult for young couples to take care of their babies, said Orapak.

Parents are also concerned about the medical bills of their children. Despite the government’s universal program, parents must wait in huge lines, and if they choose private hospitals, the costs are much higher than state welfare hospitals.

In addition, parents whose children suffer from various illnesses from birth have to shoulder vast financial and emotional burdens, she said.

Orapak’s younger son has autism, so his care is more expensive. He must be taught to write and read by a private teacher at home.

The cost of raising a child

According to the NESDC study that utilized the National Transfer Account approach, it costs approximately Bt1.5 million ($45,500) to raise a child till the age of 21, excluding state welfare.

To live until the age of 90, an average worker needs to earn Bt3.1 million. According to the study, a person with a child and an elderly relative would require Bt7.2 million in total.

Currently, the incomes of the average Thai worker do not cover their costs of living; they earn about Bt30,000 less than they spend. In order to compensate for the income shortfall, they have to dig into their assets or get cash transfers from others or government subsidies.

The average family in Thailand had savings of Bt133,256 in 2019, and one-fifth of families had savings of less than three months. If savings and income do not rise, it will put a strain on government budgets, according to the study.

Child grants should be more substantial

Children under six years old whose family members’ annual income is below 100,000 baht are eligible for a child’s grant of 600 baht a month.

Currently, child welfare expenditures account for about 50 percent of all consumer spending. The government aids children primarily through the 15-year free education program. Approximately 30 percent of consumer spending is devoted to elderly welfare, mainly healthcare.

Somchai Jitsuchon, research director at Thailand Development Research Institute, stated he did not believe sufficient child welfare could solve the low birth rate issue. He said increasing grants for children will not affect the birth rate much, but it depends on how much is sufficient.

Somchai said, “the benefit has to be extraordinarily high in order to cover the opportunity cost of raising a good child.”.

He said there is no magic pill, although there is evidence that allowing paternity leave might encourage couples to have more children. However, it has never been implemented in Thailand.

Somchai, however, supports the idea of encouraging singles to marry and have children.

Labour shortages are a result of a low birth rate. Thailand can import more labour in the short to medium term, but it would be better if our labour quality improved across the board.

Having access to high-quality education

Mr. Pumsaran Tongliemnak, an education economist at Equitable Education Research Institute, said that the high cost of education discourages couples from having more children. Thailand is not the only country experiencing this problem; birth parents in the United States and China also share the same concerns, he said.

Access to high-quality education comes at a steep price. In Thailand, for example, tuition fees at international schools are 100 times higher than at public schools.

Talented teachers are needed in public schools. He said the government should provide more subsidies to reduce the cost of enrolling children in English programs or gifted programs in public schools.

In his opinion, influencers cannot persuade couples to have more children. Social welfare, however, may help solve the problem. Thailand suffers from an unequal society, making it difficult for many families to afford high-quality education. He argued that a majority of people can only access mediocre or low-quality education.

High-income students are concentrated in fewer top-notch schools, just as they are in Latin American countries. Many students are trapped in schools without adequate material and personnel resources. It is a serious problem in Thailand.

Measures to increase birth rates

As deputy minister of public health, Satit Pitutecha said that the ministry would propose that the government invest more in human capital, like child support. This would reduce the cost of raising children for parents.

A medical doctor has proposed changing the surrogacy law in order to help childless couples through assisted reproductive technologies. Surrogacy is currently illegal for commercial reasons.

Cabinet recently approved a proposal to allow birth mothers to take six months of maternity leave, up from four months. In addition, they will be allowed to earn 50 percent of their salaries during that time. State officials will also be permitted to take 15 days of paternity leave. But these proposals may take some time to be implemented.