In Addition To IEA, OPEC Will Also Move Forward With 2025 Forecasts

(CTN News) – Its first 2025 OPEC oil demand forecast will be published in April rather than June or July as it was in previous years, the IAEA told Reuters on Wednesday.

Oil prices are affected by the monthly reports from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which provide insight into OPEC’s supply policy assumptions.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) published its first forecast of 2025 demand last week, breaking with its tradition of publishing such predictions each July.

IEA first announced plans to move publication forward last November when it published its 2024 schedule.

Toril Bosoni, head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets Division, told Reuters by e-mail that the 2025 forecast will be released in April instead of June/July. In order to avoid the overlap and get a closer look at 2025 before looking forward to 2030, we advanced the date for the Medium Term outlook to June. As a result of divergent forecasts on how quickly fossil fuels will be phased out of the world’s economy,

The IEA and OPEC disagree on the strength of demand growth in 2024.

OPEC predicts that oil use will continue to rise over the next two decades, while the IEA, which represents industrialized countries, predicts that it will peak in 2030.

Conflicts between the bodies have arisen over their differing views on new oil supplies. There is no longer a compelling reason to invest in fossil fuels, according to the IEA.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced last week that demand will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, breaking with its tradition to publish their first forecasts in July.

The same day, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais published an article disputing that demand was at its peak and urging continued investment in the oil industry. Despite the more bullish impact of possible supply disruptions, the oil market has been buffeted by doubts about the global economy and demand strength this year.

In 2024, OPEC anticipates total oil use to reach 104.4 million barrels per day (bpd), bolstered by air travel and road fuel demand, growing by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd).

In 2024, the IEA expects oil demand to grow by 1.24 million barrels per day, compared to 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023, largely due to an increase in electric vehicles on the road.

OPEC’s and IEA’s demand forecasts for this year differ by about 1%, almost equal to Libya’s production. It is unclear what the IEA will forecast for 2025 demand, but sources say it will continue to decline towards 2030.

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