Bank of Thailand Governor Says Interest-Rate Hikes Coming Soon

 

BANGKOK – Thailand’s central bank governor Veerathai Santiprabhob struck a hawkish tone after robust economic growth data on Monday, saying officials are waiting for the right time to consider what would be the first interest-rate hike since 2011.

There is less need now for an extremely accommodating stance from the Bank of Thailand since the recovery in the economy is clearer, governor Veerathai Santiprabhob told reporters.

Thailand can’t go against the global trends in interest-rate policy, he said.

“We need to look at policy space in the future — we need to have enough bullets in hand,” he said, adding that the monetary policy committee will consider the inflation outlook, the strength of the economy and financial stability when deciding on borrowing costs.

The comments came hours after a government report showed the economy expanded 4.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, underpinned by solid export growth and domestic spending. A senior official at the central bank said last month that growth of 4.5% or more in the second quarter could boost the odds of a rate increase.

The central bank has left its benchmark interest rate near a record low of 1.5% for more than two years, in contrast to Asian emerging markets from Indonesia to India, which have tightened monetary policy in the face of higher US borrowing costs and financial market turmoil.

Hefty foreign reserves and sizeable current-account surplus has sheltered the currency from the worst of the emerging-market turmoil. Along with relatively benign inflation, that’s allowed the Bank of Thailand to stand pat on interest rates.

Mr Veerathai’s comments suggest policymakers are looking for ways to exit the low-rate environment. Even though Thailand may need to raise rates in the future, policy would remain accommodating, though not extremely accommodating, he said.

While Thailand’s economic recovery is continuing to gain traction, supported by solid trade gains and tourism receipts, global risks are mounting. Trade tension between the US and China threatens to disrupt regional supply chains but could also prompt some firms to shift production to places like Thailand.

So far, the direct effect has been limited, said Thosaporn Sirisumphand, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board, which released the GDP data.

Tourism growth may also come under pressure after more than 40 Chinese visitors were killed when the tour boat carrying them sank off the coast of Phuket in July. Mr Thosaporn lowered the 2018 projection for revenue from foreign tourists to 2.15 trillion baht ($65 billion) from 2.23 trillion baht.

The monetary authority could raise borrowing costs for the first time since 2011 as early as its next policy meeting in September, Tim Leelahaphan an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in Bangkok, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. Nomura Holdings Inc continues to see a hold.

Source: Bloomberg News