Inflation Will Drop Further In 2024, But It Is Still Not Fully Tamed

(CTN News) – The pace of inflation is easing faster than expected, but it hasn’t been completely defeated, International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday, urging central bankers to carefully calibrate their interest rate cuts.

A few months ago, headline inflation in advanced economies was 9.5%, and it is expected to decrease further in 2024 to 2.3%. As a result, rate cuts would vary across major advanced economies, she told an Atlantic Council event. At this point, central banks must maintain their independence, Georgieva said, urging policymakers not to cut interest rates too soon.

As a result of premature easing, new inflation surprises may occur, which may necessitate another round of monetary tightening. Delaying too long, however, could dampen economic growth,” she said.

Georgieva says next week’s World Economic Outlook will show that global growth will be marginally stronger. This is due to robust economic activity in the United States and many emerging market economies.

Strong labor markets, a growing labor force, strong household consumption, and easing supply chain issues all contributed to global economy resilience, she said. However, there are still plenty of things to worry about.”

It has become Inflation more challenging to live in the global environment. We live in a world in which we must learn how to deal with the unexpected, Georgieva said at an Atlantic Council event. “Geopolitical tensions increase fragmentation risks… and, as we have learned over the past few years, we must be prepared for the unexpected,” she said.

The global economy was weak by historical standards, and growth prospects had slowed since the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. It is estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic has cost the global economy $3.3 trillion since 2020, with the most vulnerable countries suffering the greatest losses.

Due to rising productivity growth, the U.S. experienced the strongest rebound among advanced economies, Georgieva said. A lingering impact of high energy prices and weak productivity growth contributed to a slower euro area recovery.

Indonesia and India have fared better than other emerging market economies, but low-income countries have seen the most severe effects. Global growth Inflation is projected to be just above 3% over the next five years, well below its historical average of 3.8% due to a significant and broad-based slowdown in productivity growth.

Georgieva warned that unless a course correction is made, we would fall into a sluggish and disappointing decade. In four years, foundational reforms, such as improving governance, cutting red tape, increasing female labor market participation, and improving access to capital, could lift output by 8%.

She noted that policies promoting economic Inflation  transformation could speed up the green and digital transition, offering massive opportunities for investment, jobs, and growth.

A recent IMF study showed that AI could affect 40% of jobs worldwide and 60% in advanced economies, Georgieva said.

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