Despite Strong Headwinds, Novavax Expects 2024 Sales To Be Flat To Lower

(CTN News) – Novavax said Wednesday it still faces significant financial difficulties and expects its revenue to be flat or lower as it takes market share away from Pfizer and Moderna, which have much larger U.S. operations.

A larger-than-expected loss in the fourth quarter was caused by lower revenue than expected, sending the company’s shares down 26.3% to $4.44.

As a result, Novavax had just a small percentage market share in the U.S., according to Chief Executive John Jacobs. The company received its protein-based vaccine later than its messenger RNA-based rivals, and demand for COVID vaccines was lower than expected during the most recent vaccination campaign. A total of less than $25 million is expected to be sold in the United States during the 2023-2024 vaccination season.

According to Jacobs, “we were disappointed with that performance by the U.S.”.

Moreover, his company’s five-dose vials were less convenient to use than rivals’ prefilled syringes, he said.

In the U.S. market, we intend to be much more competitive with prefilled syringes,” the CEO stated. In addition, “we will increase retail availability and improve contracts.”

Despite $291 million in revenue, the company lost $1.44 a share. The average analyst forecast was 45 cents loss and $322 million revenue, according to LSEG.

Novavax expects revenue in 2024 to be $800 million to $1 billion, compared with $984 million in 2023. The Maryland-based company cut its revenue forecast for the first quarter to $100 million from $300 million previously.

It is unlikely that the company will be profitable this year, but Jacobs said its costs will continue to be driven down. From over $1.2 billion in 2023, it expects to save about $700 to 800 million in research and development, sales, general and administrative expenses.

As the company worked on developing its shot, the market value of Novavax surged to over $20 billion early during the pandemic. Due to manufacturing snags and regulatory delays, the company was unable to bring its shot to market on time.

The shares of Novavax have since lost more than 98% of their value, resulting in a market capitalization of less than $600 million.

A dispute that created significant financial uncertainty was settled last week when the company agreed to return at least $475 million to international vaccine group Gavi by the end of 2028.

The company still warns about its ability to remain in business. Jacobs said if we are successful this year and execute our base plan, we might be able to start looking at removing it.

Having grown better, faster, and leaner in the past few years, we are now ready to showcase our execution in the commercial market.

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