What a Donald Trump Conviction Means For The 2024 Race

(CTN News) – A new poll shows that former President Donald Trump would lead current President Joe Biden by five points in a hypothetical general election contest, 47%-42%, according to a hypothetical match-up.

It is important to note, however, that when the survey’s final question re-asks voters what would be their choice if Trump is found guilty and convicted of a felony this year, Biden narrowly pulls ahead of Trump by a margin of 45% to 43%.

There has been a dramatic shift among voters who backed Biden strongly in 2020, but whom he has had difficulty securing his support since taking office – young voters, Latinos, and independents.

In the original ballot, Biden and Donald Trump have a 42%-42% tie among voters ages 18 to 34 based on their original ballots. But when these voters are asked about their ballot choice if Trump is convicted, they break for Biden by 15 points, and they are 47% to 32% in favor of him.

As a result, Latinos go from Donald Trump 42% to Biden 41% on the first ballot – to Biden 45% to Trump 35% on the second ballot in which the hypothetical question is asked regarding Trump’s conviction.

There was a 19-point advantage for Donald Trump on the first ballot, but by the second ballot, the margin was smaller, with an 8-point advantage for Donald Trump.

As a matter of fact, it’s a dramatic shift, especially among independents. There is never a guarantee as to how a hypothetical will play out in the real world, though.

According to Republican pollster Bill McInturff, the Republican member of a bipartisan group of pollsters who conducted the NBC News survey, the small number of voters who switched on these two ballots — 55 in total out of 1,000 in total — hold overwhelmingly negative opinions about Biden, and they also strongly prefer a Republican-controlled Congress by more than 60 percent.

According to McInturff, this is the reason why he doubts that these voters will support Biden, regardless of whether Trump is convicted.

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