BANGKOK – For more than twenty years, the Shinawatra family has been a major force in Thai politics, known for their populist policies, strong rural backing, and ongoing controversies.
From Thaksin Shinawatra’s rise to power in 2001 to his daughter Paetongtarn’s short-lived role as prime minister, the family’s hold on politics in Thailand has both driven change and divided opinion. Now, with mounting legal issues, growing public dissatisfaction, and a changing political mood, the Shinawatra influence looks weaker than ever.
A recent survey by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) found over 80% of people want suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra to either step down or dissolve parliament, showing just how much trust in the family’s political standing has faded.
The Shinawatra Influence: Loved and Loathed
Thaksin’s story began as a telecom tycoon who won over rural and working-class voters with policies like universal healthcare, village development funds, and farm subsidies. He led the Thai Rak Thai party to a clear parliamentary majority in both 2001 and 2005, the first time a single party had ever done so.
His economic programme, known as “Thaksinomics”, improved life for many but also angered city elites, the military, and royalist groups, who accused him of corruption, favouritism, and threatening old power networks.
Thaksin’s removal in a military coup in 2006 started a cycle of political chaos that has defined this era. In 2011, his sister Yingluck became Thailand’s first female prime minister but was forced out by a court decision in 2014 and later found guilty of negligence over a failed rice subsidy.
She fled the country and now faces a five-year jail term if she returns. The Pheu Thai Party, linked to the family, has survived several bans and break-ups, returning each time thanks to Thaksin’s ongoing influence and strong rural support.
Thaksin’s Return and Ongoing Legal Troubles
Thaksin returned to Thailand in August 2023 after 15 years abroad. Many saw it as a bold move to regain political clout. Supporters greeted him at Don Mueang Airport, where he paid respect to King Maha Vajiralongkorn before being taken into face charges.
Originally given an eight-year sentence for corruption and abuse of power, Thaksin saw his jail time reduced to one year by a royal pardon. He served half a year in a hospital instead of prison, sparking claims of special treatment, then was released on parole in February 2024.
But problems persist. Now 75, Thaksin is being prosecuted under Thailand’s strict lèse-majesté laws for a 2015 interview with Korean media. These laws, which ban criticism of the monarchy, come with jail terms of up to 15 years per offence.
The case has put the law back in the spotlight, with many seeing it as a tool to suppress political opponents. Thaksin’s trial continues as of July 2025, with a real chance he could end up back in prison or forced overseas again.
His long hospital stay is also under review for possible breaches of correctional rules, further damaging his public image.
Paetongtarn’s Troubles: The Family’s Power Wanes
Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s youngest daughter, became the country’s youngest prime minister at 38 in August 2024. She took office after the Constitutional Court removed Srettha Thavisin, part of a pattern where courts have often targeted Shinawatra-backed leaders. With no previous government role, many saw Paetongtarn as carrying out her father’s wishes, leading to criticism that she was acting as his stand-in.
Her time as prime minister has been rocky. On July 1, 2025, the Constitutional Court suspended her after a leak of a phone call with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen, a known friend of her family.
The call, which discussed a tense border issue that led to clashes in May, was widely seen as undermining Thailand’s interests. Anger grew after Paetongtarn seemed to side with Hun Sen and criticised a Thai general, leading to large protests at Victory Monument, mainly from the pro-royalist “Yellow Shirt” camp that opposed her father.
The NIDA poll, done in early July 2025, makes clear just how much support has dropped. 42.37% of respondents want Paetongtarn to resign, and 39% want parliament dissolved. Her approval fell from 30.9% in March to only 9.2% in June.
Notably, 32.8% now prefer former coup leader General Prayuth Chan-o-cha as a replacement, showing a surprising desire for the kind of stability backed by the military during this period of unrest.
Yingluck Shinawatra in Exile: A Family’s Decline
Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister, has remained exiled since 2017 due to a negligence conviction linked to a costly rice programme. Though her absence has not wiped out the family’s political presence, it shows just how vulnerable they are to legal and military pressure.
Like her brother, Yingluck’s approach appealed to rural areas but upset Bangkok elites, ending in her removal and the 2014 coup.
Repeated clashes with Thailand’s conservative forces, including the military, courts, and royalists, have led many to believe the family is being systematically pushed out. “Thailand seems stuck in a cycle where Shinawatra-led governments are elected, then face pressure from old power groups, street protests, and non-parliamentary actions,” political analyst Napon Jatusripitak said.
Shifting Politics, Fading Support
Thailand is changing. The Shinawatra family’s once-solid base in rural and working-class communities is shrinking, hurt by economic troubles and endless political strife. Paetongtarn’s government struggled to kickstart growth, with weak tourism and looming trade tariffs adding to public discontent.
Her coalition collapsed when the pro-military Bhumjaithai Party pulled out on June 18, 2025, putting Pheu Thai at risk in a no-confidence vote, though that process is on hold while she is suspended.
The Move Forward Party’s rise, before it was dissolved in 2024 for trying to change the lèse-majesté law, showed that younger, city-based voters want new ideas and deeper reforms. Still, the old guard holds power, with the courts and military continuing to steer events.
The NIDA poll’s shift toward Prayuth hints that many Thais still see army-backed order as the safest choice, even as others demand more democracy.
Collapse or Coup?
Thailand is facing a leadership gap after Paetongtarn’s suspension. Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai is currently the second interim prime minister in a week. Experts think Chaikasem Nitisiri, a Pheu Thai veteran, could be the next nominee, but it’s unlikely his appointment would calm the unrest.
“The Shinawatra name is at its weakest in years,” said Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations. “Another court case or ruling against Thaksin could push the whole family out of politics.”
Talk of another military coup is heating up. While there have been 12 successful coups since 1932, the current military leaders seem to prefer shifting power through courts and parliament rather than direct action.
Still, if protests grow and Pheu Thai’s government falls, the chance of direct military involvement rises. “The leaked call has raised fears of a coup, but the army might let the courts do the job,” commented Purawich Watanasukh, a Bangkok-based analyst.
Paetongtarn is waiting for a key court decision, while Thaksin faces trial for lèse-majesté. The Shinawatra family has survived coups, court orders, and forced exile, but the latest polls and protests point to their waning appeal.
Thailand is at a crossroads, torn between conservative traditions and a push for reform, and the Shinawatras may no longer play a central role.
The country now looks to the courts, the streets, and parliament for what’s next. Whether Paetongtarn returns or joins her father and aunt as former leaders forced out, one thing is certain: the Shinawatra era is fading, but Thailand’s political story is far from finished.
