(CTN News) – OPEC may experience a further decline in its market share in early 2024 due to the recent departure of Angola, as well as weakened demand and increased output from non-OPEC producers.
Based on their calculations, production is projected to fall below 27 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for less than 27% of the global supply of 102 million bpd.
The last time witnessed such a decrease in market share was during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic when global oil demand dropped by nearly 20%. In December, Angola officially announced its withdrawal due to disagreements regarding its oil production quotas.
In November, Angola’s crude output was recorded at 1.15 million bpd, a significant decline from 1.88 million bpd in 2017, just one year after joining OPEC. This decline can be attributed to under-investments in its aging, deepwater oil fields.
According to Reuters, Market share has been impacted by increased shale production in the United States. The US has reached a record-breaking oil output of 13.1 million barrels per day this year.
While some analysts predict a slowdown in US oil output growth, others believe estimates for 2024 are too conservative.
OPEC remains optimistic and projects a global market share of 40% by 2045, with a decline in non-OPEC output from the early 2030s. OPEC also forecasts global oil demand to reach 116 million barrels per day by 2045, driven by growth in India, China, Africa, and the Middle East.
India is expected to surpass China as the primary driver of global oil demand growth due to its expanding population. India’s transition to renewable energy is anticipated to be slower than China’s, as the country supports coal-fired electricity generation.