(CTN News) – OPEC raised its economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 on Tuesday, noting further upside potential for both years. The organization forecasts relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and 2025.
In its monthly report, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted that world oil demand would rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and 1.85 million bpd in 2025. As of last month, both forecasts were unchanged.
Oil demand may be further boosted by a further boost to economic growth. Although OPEC+ is still cutting output to support the market, OPEC’s 2024 demand growth forecast is higher than that of other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency.
As a result, Raised its economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 0.1 percentage point because of a “positive trend” for economic growth.
In its report, OPEC stated that global economic growth remains robust. In all major OECD and non-OECD economies, there may be further upside potential.
Conflicts in the Middle East and supply outages have helped support oil prices in 2024, although concerns about high interest rates have weighed. Crude oil traded around $82 a barrel on Tuesday, up 0.5%
According to OPEC, prices rose last month due to easing speculative selling pressure, supply disruptions, and stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data.
Global economic growth is expected to reach 2.7% this year and 2.9% in 2025, supported by continued easing of general inflation.
A GAP WITH THE IEA
There is a big difference between expectations for this year’s oil demand growth and the IEA’s forecast of 1.24 million bpd. Thursday is the date for the IEA to update its forecasts, which represents industrialised countries.
In recent years, OPEC and the IEA have clashed over issues such as long-term demand and investment in new supply. In 2030, the IEA predicts that oil demand will peak due to a shift to cleaner energy, a view that rejects.
In an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said long-term outlook for demand, which goes to 2045, is robust.
To support the market, OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance have reduced output since late 2022. In the first quarter, a new cut was implemented.
In January, OPEC oil production dropped by 350,000 barrels per day to 26.34 million barrels per day following the latest round of voluntary output cuts.
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