BANGKOK – Artillery fire now rolls across the rugged Cambodia-Thailand border, dragging a century-old dispute into its bloodiest phase in years. What started as scattered clashes over ancient temples and disputed ridgelines has grown into airstrikes, rocket salvos, and mass civilian flight. More than 300,000 people have already fled their homes.
Cambodia, still shaped by the authoritarian legacy of the Hun family, appears to be goading its bigger neighbour, Thailand. Military specialists compare Phnom Penh’s behaviour to “poking a tiger with a twig.” With Thailand holding clear military superiority and preparing a heavier response, Cambodia now risks not just losing ground but facing a threat to its own survival.
The latest round of fighting erupted on 8 December after a shaky ceasefire arranged by U.S. President Donald Trump in October finally collapsed. Thai F-16 jets struck Cambodian positions in Preah Vihear province, killing at least nine civilians and injuring 20, according to Cambodia’s defence ministry. Bangkok reports four soldiers killed and 68 wounded, blaming Cambodian BM-21 rocket units for firing blindly into civilian zones.
“This has gone well past a minor border clash; it’s a planned build-up,” says Carl Schuster, a former intelligence director with U.S. Pacific Command. “Cambodia’s leaders are gambling on global sympathy and Chinese support, but Thailand outclasses them in every way that counts.”
History’s Shadow on the Border
The roots of this crisis stretch back to colonial-era maps drafted by France in 1907. These documents set out the 817-kilometre line between Siam (today’s Thailand) and French Indochina (modern Cambodia), but left enough ambiguity to sow decades of mistrust.
One of the most bitter flashpoints is the 11th-century Preah Vihear Temple. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) granted the temple itself to Cambodia in 1962, yet the surrounding land is claimed by Thailand. Skirmishes between 2008 and 2011 left 20 dead and thousands displaced. The fighting in 2025 marks a more dangerous phase.
Tension flared again on 28 May in the Emerald Triangle, where Cambodia, Thailand, and Laos meet. Cambodian forces had been reinforcing positions there. A clash followed, leaving one soldier dead. Phnom Penh accused Thailand of intruding on its territory, while Bangkok released images and reports alleging new Cambodian landmine fields.
By 24 July, the dispute had escalated into heavy exchanges near Ta Muen Thom temple. Five days of intense fire, including rockets and artillery, killed 48 people and uprooted around 300,000 residents. A Trump-brokered truce in Kuala Lumpur briefly calmed the front, but Thailand suspended the deal in November after a landmine badly injured a Thai soldier. Bangkok insists the mine was newly laid by Cambodian forces.
Cambodia’s actions appear methodical rather than accidental. Analysis of satellite imagery by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) shows that Phnom Penh has strengthened 33 separate positions since March. By contrast, Thailand has made 14 moves that ASPI classifies as de-escalatory.
“Cambodia’s behaviour screams intent,” says ASPI analyst Nathan Ruser. “They are fortifying high ground, stockpiling artillery, and preparing fallback positions. It looks like defensive aggression, meant to pressure Thailand into concessions.”
Domestic politics add fuel. Former strongman Hun Sen, now Senate president, and his son, Prime Minister Hun Manet, have turned to nationalism as the economy slows. In the middle of the crisis, they announced mandatory conscription for 2026, a move critics see as political theatre wrapped in patriotic language.
Military Match-Up: Thailand’s Clear Superiority
Any extended war would be shaped by a harsh imbalance of power. Thailand’s military is larger, better funded, and far more advanced.
The 2025 Global Firepower Index (GFP) ranks Thailand 25th worldwide, with a Power Index rating of 0.4536. Lower scores indicate stronger forces. Thailand comes third in ASEAN, behind Indonesia and Vietnam. Cambodia sits at 95th with a score of 2.0752, a sign of deep structural weakness.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reaches a similar view in its Military Balance 2025 report. It describes Thailand’s forces as “large, well-funded, and among Southeast Asia’s best-equipped,” with a clear edge in air power thanks to modern Saab Gripen and F-16 fighters. Cambodia relies on a mix of ageing Soviet-era systems, topped up with Chinese aid, but still lacks any credible air force.
A comparison based on GFP and IISS data highlights the gap:
| Category | Thailand | Cambodia | Advantage Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Personnel | 360,850 | 221,000 | 1.6:1 |
| Total Personnel | 585,850 (incl. 200,000 reserves, 25,000 paramilitary) | 231,000 (incl. 10,000 paramilitary) | 2.5:1 |
| Tanks | 635 | 644 | Near parity |
| Armoured Vehicles | 16,935 | 3,627 | 4.7:1 |
| Artillery Pieces | 1,050 | 480 | 2.2:1 |
| Rocket Projectors | 26 | 463 | Cambodia 17.8:1 |
| Total Aircraft | 493 (incl. 11 Gripens, 50+ F-16s) | 25 (mostly transports, no modern fighters) | 19.7:1 |
| Naval Vessels | 287 (incl. frigates, submarines) | 118 (mostly patrol boats) | 2.4:1 |
| Defence Budget (2025) | $5.89 billion | $860 million | 6.8:1 |
Thailand spends around 1.1% of its GDP on defence, enough to fund high-end purchases such as VT-4 tanks and new frigates. Cambodia’s $860 million budget, about 1.5% of GDP, mainly keeps basic operations going.
Phnom Penh’s huge lead in rocket projectors suggests a focus on long-range bombardment and guerrilla-style tactics. Specialists, however, say that this means little once Thai jets and drones come into play.
“Cambodia can fire salvos of rockets across the border, but Thailand owns the air,” says Schuster. “The ground features favour Cambodian access in some sectors, yet that is small comfort if F-16s can knock out their artillery within hours.”
Analysts Sound the Alarm: A War Cambodia Cannot Win.
Most military experts see the same outcome if fighting spins into a full war. Cambodia could cause damage and raise costs, but would almost certainly lose.
“Thailand leads in both numbers and quality,” Schuster argues. “Its special forces, air crews, and logistics units are far more capable. They could cut Cambodian supply routes in days and turn fixed border defences into death traps.”
The IISS notes that Thailand fields about 361,000 active personnel, roughly three times Cambodia’s real fighting strength, backed by long-standing ties with the United States. Cambodia, on the other hand, leans heavily on China and still depends on old T-55 tanks and MiG-21 aircraft that belong in museums, not modern warzones.
Joshua Kurlantzick of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) warns of reckless decision-making from embattled elites. “Hun Sen’s system feeds on nationalism. Picking a fight with Thailand might boost support in the short term, but it could bring a humanitarian disaster. The Thai military also sees a chance to strengthen its own hand before elections, while Cambodia hopes Washington will step in to restrain Bangkok.”
Ruser from ASPI adds that Cambodia’s extensive fortifications buy only time. “They do not buy victory. A bigger war could uproot millions, tear at ASEAN unity, and tempt China to deepen its involvement. Even so, Beijing is unlikely to commit itself fully to a conflict that Cambodia has little chance of winning.”
Wargames by the Lowy Institute paint a bleak picture for Phnom Penh. In most scenarios, Thailand secures all contested ground within weeks. It also uses its navy to block key ports, strangling Cambodian imports of fuel and ammunition.
“Phnom Penh’s conscription plan is more about the stage than the battlefield,” says Schuster. “It swells the ranks, but it does not produce pilots, mechanics, or trained officers.” Casualties, already at least 10 in the most recent exchanges, could jump into the thousands if both sides commit fully and start using their heaviest weapons.
Big Powers in the Background: U.S., China, and ASEAN Under Strain
The crisis is not only a border fight. It also exposes a tug-of-war between the United States and China, and tests ASEAN’s ability to manage conflict among its own members.
Thailand is a major non-NATO U.S. ally and has long received American F-16s, training, and joint exercises. Cambodia has become a close military partner of China. Around 80% of its equipment comes from Beijing, which has also funded bases and training programmes.
Trump’s earlier ceasefire was backed by threats of trade penalties, but his administration now faces criticism that it leans too far towards Bangkok. “Washington cannot walk away from Thailand without sending a chill through ASEAN,” argues CFR’s Mike Froman. China, for its part, continues to arm and advise Cambodia, seeing the clash as a useful distraction from tensions in the South China Sea.
ASEAN leaders have tried to step in. Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim has taken the lead, yet talks have stalled. Indonesia and Vietnam, both wary of being drawn in, are watching every move. On 9 December, UN Secretary-General António Guterres appealed for fresh dialogue, but Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul insists that “there will be no talks until our sovereignty is secure.”
Hun Manet speaks of restraint in public, yet at the same time calls up reserves and accuses Thailand of naked aggression. Each side frames itself as the victim, a stance that makes compromise harder and raises the risk of miscalculation.
A Region on Edge: Human Cost and Economic Shock
The pain is sharpest for those living along the frontier. More than 125,000 Thai civilians are sheltering in makeshift camps in Buriram province. Across the border, Cambodian families are fleeing towards Siem Reap in tractors, lorries, and on foot, carrying what they can.
Border casinos, long seen as cash machines for both governments, now sit shattered and burned. Cross-border trade has all but stopped. Tourism has collapsed in nearby provinces. Economists estimate losses in the billions of dollars if the crisis drags on.
“This is not just about old stones and temple walls; it’s about people losing everything,” says a displaced farmer from Oddar Meanchey, clutching a bag of clothes and family documents.
Regional experts urge stronger diplomatic pressure. Sothirak Pou of the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies argues that the ICJ’s rulings must be upheld and enforced, or similar disputes may flare elsewhere. Yet global attention is scattered. Trump is focused on his re-election campaign, while Xi Jinping is more concerned with Taiwan and domestic pressures.
Schuster offers a stark warning. “If diplomacy fails, Cambodia’s leaders will find that they have prodded a far larger beast than they can handle. They might spark a conflict that consumes their own state before anyone can step in to stop it.”
Night falls over a scarred border that has seen empires rise and fall, and once again, the future feels fragile. The guns may fall silent or grow louder in the days ahead. For now, the tiger stirs, and Cambodia stands dangerously close to its claws.
