BEIJING – The Middle East conflict has sent crude prices spiking, briefly reaching $120 a barrel. That surge has put huge pressure on China, the world’s biggest oil buyer, which rolled out its fourth fuel price increase of 2026 on March 10. The move marked China’s largest one-time jump since 2022.
Late on March 9, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) raised retail price ceilings for gasoline by 695 yuan (about $100.5) per metric ton. Diesel rose by 670 yuan (about $97) per metric ton.
The new caps took effect on March 10. At the pump, that equals roughly 0.53 to 0.57 yuan more per liter. For a typical 50-liter fill-up, drivers pay about 25 to 28 yuan extra, depending on fuel grade.
China’s pricing system tracks global crude benchmarks and also accounts for refining costs, taxes, and margins. At the same time, officials have sought to maintain supply stability and avoid local shortages. Reports also said refiners received orders to stop exports and focus on the domestic market.
Rush at Gas Stations Before the Midnight Change
Drivers didn’t wait around after the announcement. In several cities, including Nanjing and Dongguan, long lines appeared at gas stations ahead of the midnight deadline on March 9. Many motorists topped off tanks to dodge the immediate increase. Videos shared online showed packed forecourts and slow-moving lines.
In some areas, the rush looked like a mini panic. People hurried to refuel and worried about short-term tightness. Overall supply has stayed stable, yet the fear of higher living costs has added to the stress.
Diesel users, especially trucking and logistics companies, face the biggest strain. Some operators paused routes or raised freight rates to cover higher fuel bills. Meanwhile, wholesale diesel prices jumped, which squeezed haulers that already run on thin profits.
- Trucking companies reported monthly fuel costs rising by thousands of yuan per vehicle.
- Delivery services saw slower service as drivers reduced trips or passed costs along.
- Public transit groups, including bus operators, may seek support to avoid ticket hikes.
These cost pressures land on top of broader economic headwinds, since fuel plays a big role in making and moving goods.
Import Dependence Becomes a Clear Weak Spot
China imports about 70 percent of its crude, so global shocks hit fast. The latest Middle East fighting has highlighted how much supply risk comes from unstable regions. Iran has supplied a meaningful slice of discounted barrels in recent years (often estimated at around 13 to 20 percent), with China as the main buyer.
At the same time, fears around the Strait of Hormuz have grown because so much Gulf oil passes through it. Any disruption there could tighten supply for weeks or longer. China has taken steps to spread risk, including buying more from Russia and building large strategic reserves (often estimated at more than 1 billion barrels). Still, heavy reliance on sea routes leaves the economy exposed when conflict flares.
Analysts also point to a few buffers. Electric vehicle growth has reduced gasoline demand, and stockpiles plus domestic output help soften sudden shocks. Even so, if high crude prices last, they can lift inflation and slow growth.
Economic Ripple Effects, Inflation, Spending, and Business Costs
This fuel hike adds fresh pressure on prices across the economy. Inflation in February hit a 37-month high, helped by holiday demand. Now March’s energy jump could push costs higher again.
- Gas stations still face tight margins under controlled retail caps, even as wholesale prices rise.
- Factories and exporters may pay more to ship goods, which can hurt competitiveness.
- Households feel the hit through commuting costs and higher prices for delivered products.
Officials have issued guidance to keep output up and supplies steady. Still, extended swings in global crude prices could strain the system.
What Comes Next for Oil and China’s Fuel Prices
Brent crude briefly touched about $119.50 a barrel as traders priced in supply risks. Prices have since cooled to roughly the $90 to $100 range in recent sessions. Even so, analysts warn that a wider conflict, or a long disruption near the Strait, could send oil much higher. Some worst-case views still point to $150 if shipping lanes face major blockages.
For now, Beijing continues to track the conflict closely. The NDRC has signaled that Middle East events remain the main force behind recent moves. As conditions shift, China’s mix of reserves, diversified imports, and cleaner energy plans will shape how well it handles the next shock.
The latest hike shows how quickly a distant war can raise costs at home, from gas stations to supply chains across China.
