How is the Thai real estate market doing up to the middle of 2025? Is it going to plummet, stabilize, or does it have a chance to flourish? These are important questions that everyone is interested in. Dr.Sopon comes to reveal the truth about the latest situation surveyed up to the middle of 2025.
Dr.Sopon Pornchokchai, President of The Agency for Real Estate Affairs (www.area.co.th), revealed the results of a survey of the housing market in Bangkok and its vicinity in mid-2025/ This survey was completed in early July 2025 (ending the second quarter of 2025).
Interesting information was found that the government and private sectors should pay attention to to set appropriate policies and plans for both the public and the private sectors, as well as home buyers.
Launching of new projects
The survey results of the Thai Real Estate Information and Appraisal Center found that in the first 6 months of 2025, only 15,484 new real estate projects were launched, 99.8% of which were residential, with a total value of Baht 111,230 million (USD 3.37 billion).
Other types of real estate were only a small part. The average price of residential property was Baht 7.184 million (USD 217,697), which is higher than every year because this year, there was an emphasis on selling expensive products,andt buyers still had more purchasing power than general cheap products.
In terms of housing, the largest group is still condominiums, with 7,393 units (47.8%), or almost half. Surprisingly, 3,719 single-detached houses, or 24.1%, were launched, which was more than the 3,070 townhouses launched.
The rest were semi-detached houses (7.5%), 1,154 units, and commercial buildings ( 0.8 %). Most single-detached houses and semi-detached houses were launched at prices of Baht 5-10 million, while the largest group of townhouses were launched at prices of Baht 2-3 million.
As for condominiums, the largest group was launched at prices of Baht 1-2 million and Baht 2-3 million. Condominiums priced over Baht 20 million were launched very rarely.
Housing Market Forecast to End 2025
If we look at the figures of the launch of new real estate projects, especially residential, only 15,452 units with a combined value of Baht 110,820 million (USD 3.358 billion), it is possible that the residential market in 2025 will have 30,904 units with a combined value of Baht 221,640 million (USD 6.716 billion), which is equivalent to a 46.4% decrease in development value and a 49.7% decrease in the number of new units launched, or half of 2024, which was already bad, but 2025 is expected to be even worse.
However, Dr.Sopon predicts that in the second half of 2025, there should be a large number of low-cost housing projects (especially condominiums and townhouses priced no more than Baht 1.5 million or USD 41,667) that will receive investment promotion from the Board of Investment.
In 2024, the government had measures to promote the construction of low-cost houses, and now it is time for these products to hit the market after the design and various permits are completed.
Dr.Sopon expects that the number of new units launched in 2025, when combined with the second half of the year, should increase to 39,540 units, and the development value will increase to Baht 251,371 million (USD 7.617 billion), or an average price of Baht 6.357 million (USD 192,636).
However, in 2025, it is still likely to be 39.2% lower than in 2024 in terms of the number of units and 35.7% in terms of project value. It can be said that the number of 39,540 units is the lowest in 23 years, lower than the COVID-19 crisis or lower since 2002 when the economy began to recover from the economic crisis in 1997. In terms of the value of new projects, it is the lowest in 16 years since 2009
However, in terms of development value, the main product launched in the first half of 2025 in Bangkok and its vicinity with the highest value was single houses, with a total value of Baht 66,474 million (USD 2.014 billion) out of the total Baht 110,820 (USD 3.358 billion), or 60%, which is considered the group with the highest market share.
Next are condominiums at Baht 22,931 million (USD 695 million) or 20.7%, and townhouses at Baht 12,257 million or US 371 million (11.1%), which is not much higher than semi-detached houses at Baht 8,503 million ( 7.7%). It can be said that single houses priced at Baht 20 million and above, although there are only 821 units (5.3%) of new supply, have a total value of Baht 36,819 million or 33.2% of the total new development value.
This case shows that products that can still be sold in the market are expensive products for high-income earners, while cheap products are difficult to sell because the general public has less purchasing power.
The decrease in supply is a good sign.
In a sense, the decline in housing production reflects the economic downturn. The economy determines the real estate market. The real estate market is a dependent variable on the economy. Therefore, expecting to stimulate the economy with real estate is impossible. If the national or household economy is good, there will be more property purchases. But in a bad economy, housing purchases will be reduced.
However, the launch of fewer residential projects, with only 15,452 new real estate projects launched at a combined value of Baht 110.82 billion (USD 3.358 billion), on the contrary, there were 23,305 units sold, or 50.8% more than the number of newly launched units.
This indicates that the market has adjusted well. The remaining units in the market have therefore decreased to only 223,019 units, from 234,478 units left at the end of 2024. On the contrary, if the market does not adjust and hundreds of thousands of new projects are launched per year, a bubble problem will occur. However, there is no risk of a bubble at present.
The most interesting Real Estate locations at the moment are :
1. Location A2: Bangkhan-Khlong Luang has launched many condominium projects priced at 1-2 million and 2-3 million, even though the condominium market may not be in good condition. This is because it is an area specifically for students and staff of Thammasat University and Bangkok University.
2. Location D5: Watcharapol-Khubon and continuing to A6: Lam Luk Ka, there are many launches of low-priced condo projects priced at 1-2 million baht. This is because it is an area connected to the electric train, especially the Green and Pink lines.
3. Location H6: Bangna – Trat Km. 10-30 has launched 454 single-detached houses priced at 5-10 million baht. Although not many have been sold yet, it is considered a prime location of interest.
4. Location J2: Pracha Uthit (Thonburi side) is also an interesting location with 417 townhouses priced at 2-3 million baht launched. It is considered a residential location for people with relatively lower-middle income groups.
For locations that have no project launched at all, they may be considered unattractive locations. For example, the outer areas of Bangkok are important because they are areas without public utilities (expressways or electric trains).
Housing Market Trends 2025-2026
If the national economy is still not good, the opportunity for housing developments will be limited because purchasing power is lacking. Therefore, Dr.Sopon pointed out that the new housing market has the following direction.
1. Housing development still focuses on high-income groups, such as those selling single houses at prices of Baht 20 million or more. However, at present, prices of this group of products have been discounted in an attempt to clear out the stock. The survey results found that the number of projects that have reduced prices has increased.
2. Opportunities to develop low-cost housing, such as not exceeding 1.5 million baht per unit, as promoted by the Board of Investment, some of which may be sold to low-income earners, and some of which are speculative products, resulting in a greater supply of low-cost products. However, housing products for middle-income earners or those with a relatively low middle income, such as those sold at prices of 2-4 million baht, may not be very successful.
3. Developing other alternative products is also possible, such as developing real estate in tourist cities, creating real estate for rent, generating long-term income, etc.
4. Turning to other interesting businesses, such as after-sales service in real estate, agricultural business, and developing real estate abroad.
The overall Thai real estate market is expected to remain sluggish. According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund, Thailand’s economic size is expected to be lower than Singapore’s in 2025, lower than the Philippines’s in 2028, and lower than Vietnam’s in 2029, which will increase competition with other countries. Thailand’s adjustments in tourism, real estate, and real estate services must therefore be made on a large scale.
Policy recommendations for market recovery
1. Amendment of the Escrow Account Act to make it mandatory so that foreigners interested in purchasing Thai real estate will be confident.
2. Introduction to the purchase tax law (stamp duty), amendment land and building tax (say 0.5% of market value), capital gain tax from resale (say 10-20% of market value), inheritance tax (say 10-20% of market value) to be equal to Thais buying real estate abroad. Otherwise, foreigners buying real estate in Thailand will not help the Thai economy grow as much as it should.
3. Zoning in the city center should allow for the construction of tall buildings with a higher proportion of the Floor Area Ratio (FAR), such as 20 to 1. This will encourage people to stay in the city rather than going out to the suburbs, which destroys green areas and causes public utilities to expand endlessly.
4. Improve the land and building tax system, especially by increasing the tax on vacant land to encourage land owners to develop their land, making the land less expensive, and enabling the construction of housing in the city center for middle-income earners.
5. Efficiently selling as many second-hand houses as possible so that people can buy and sell houses quickly, pay off debts, and home buyers can buy at a lower price, etc.
Agency for Real Estate Affairs is a private but the first real estate information in Thailand. It is very impartial with no representatives of real estate developers associations to sit on its board. Everyone can get access to the information as members on the same date.
Normally, in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region, the field survey of new real estate projects is conducted every month and reported within 10 days of the next month. The update of some 3,500 housing projects is conducted every quarter and reported within the third week of the next month.
