BANGKOK – Thailand’s Constitutional Court is expected to deliver a decision today, August 29, 2025, that could reshape the country’s political direction. The focus is on suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, whose fate now hinges on a court verdict connected to a leaked phone call with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen.

The case has sparked another wave of uncertainty for Thailand’s already unsteady democracy. Depending on the outcome, Paetongtarn could return to office or step down, raising fresh concerns about the nation’s stability.

The story picked up speed on June 18, after a 17-minute audio recording surfaced in the media. The tape revealed a private chat between Paetongtarn and Hun Sen, who is both a close family ally and Cambodia’s former leader.

Released publicly by Hun Sen, the recording showed Paetongtarn referring to him as “uncle” and criticizing a Thai regional army commander, calling him an “opponent” during rising border tensions between the two countries.

An armed clash had already taken place on May 28, with one Cambodian soldier killed, making the situation even more tense.

The leaked audio drew harsh criticism at home. Conservative politicians and nationalist groups were quick to attack, claiming Paetongtarn had weakened Thailand’s military position and national pride by being too accommodating towards Hun Sen.. Protests soon erupted in Bangkok on June 28, with thousands demanding Paetongtarn’s resignation.

Her coalition was shaken when the Bhumjaithai Party pulled its support, leaving the Pheu Thai Party barely holding a majority.

The Constitutional Court responded on July 1, voting 7 to 2 in favour of suspending Paetongtarn while it conducted an ethics review, following a petition from 36 senators who claimed she broke constitutional standards.

Thailand’s Power Struggle

Paetongtarn, who at 38 is Thailand’s youngest prime minister and the third Shinawatra to hold the post, defended her actions by saying she sought to prevent more bloodshed at the border.

At a press event after her suspension from the Constitutional Court, she explained that her words reflected a negotiation strategy, not a personal agenda. She said her only goal was to stop more violence and expressed regret that the call was made public, insisting it had always been intended as a private conversation.

This case reflects larger tensions in Thai politics. The Shinawatra family has clashed with the country’s conservative and royalist powers for years. Paetongtarn’s father, Thaksin Shinawatra, served as prime minister before being ousted in 2006 and then living in exile for 15 years.

Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, was also removed from office, following both a court decision and a coup in 2014. Paetongtarn herself took office in August 2024, after the Constitutional Court disqualified her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, over an ethics matter.

Meanwhile, Thaksin returned to Thailand in 2023 but soon faced legal cases, including charges tied to a 2015 interview that authorities say insulted the monarchy. Paetongtarn’s suspension happened on the same day as her father’s court date, prompting many to believe the family is once again caught up in legal battles aimed at curbing their political reach.

The Constitutional Court has dissolved 34 political parties since 2006, including the up-and-coming Move Forward Party last year, which critics say highlights a recurring effort to sideline the Shinawatra camp.

Constitutional Court Record

Experts have offered different views on how today’s ruling might play out. Petra Alderman from the London School of Economics stated that Paetongtarn’s prospects look poor because the Constitutional Court has a record of decisions against Shinawatra-led governments.

Alderman pointed out that moving Paetongtarn to the culture minister role in a recent reshuffle may have been an effort to keep her political career alive. Other analysts, such as those from Nation TV, have presented arguments supporting Paetongtarn’s possible survival.

They suggest that although her actions might have hurt the image of her office, they may fall short of the “serious breach” needed for outright dismissal. These analysts highlight that her attempt to find a peaceful solution lines up with generally accepted negotiation practices, such as those described in the book Getting to Yes.

Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist from Ubon Ratchathani University, remarked that the court’s suspension of Paetongtarn followed public pressure, but the legitimacy of the leaked call as grounds for removal remains open to debate. He noted the frequent use of legal and procedural moves in Thai politics, sometimes in place of genuine democratic processes.

High Stakes for Thailand

The court’s decision will shape the coming months. If Paetongtarn is removed, her cabinet must resign, setting off a fresh process to appoint a new leader and form another government.

Thailand’s political unrest could deepen, especially with an economy that has slowed and Paetongtarn’s support in the polls dropping sharply from 30.9 percent in March to just 9.2 percent by June, according to recent figures from the National Institute of Development Administration.

If she is allowed to return, Paetongtarn Shinawatra will still face major challenges. She must work to regain public confidence, stabilize her party’s shaky coalition, and prepare for a looming no-confidence vote in parliament.

The Pheu Thai Party already faces hurdles in meeting its campaign pledges and now trails behind the People’s Party in recent surveys.

With the Constitutional Court’s decision imminent, tensions remain high across Thailand. The outcome will shape not only Paetongtarn’s future but may also reveal how much power the Shinawatra family still holds against their long-standing opponents.

For now, Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit serves as acting prime minister, leading a nation unsure of its next political chapter.