PARIS– President Emmanuel Macron has taken a bold step by making Sébastien Lecornu, former Armed Forces Minister, France’s new Prime Minister. At just 39 and known for his loyalty to Macron, Lecornu takes the role at a tense moment.
Recent days saw François Bayrou’s government fall after opposition parties toppled his administration in a no-confidence vote, triggered by his push for a harsh €44 billion budget cut.
Lecornu is now Macron’s fifth prime minister in less than two years, highlighting growing instability in the country. With national debt reaching €3.345 trillion (114 percent of GDP), critics blame Macron’s focus on progressive policies for putting France in financial trouble.
Lecornu’s shift from the centre-right Les Républicains to Macron’s Renaissance party in 2017 marked an early sign of his political flexibility. Now, he steps into a deeply divided parliament with the difficult task of securing support for the 2026 budget.
The Élysée Palace said Macron wants Lecornu to “consult all political forces in parliament” to deliver a budget that balances fiscal caution and growth, while considering the views of France’s varied parties. This is easier said than done.
France’s National Rally Readies
With Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and the far-left France Unbowed pushing contrasting ideas, Lecornu faces tough opposition.
France’s rising debt sits at the core of the crisis. Since Macron’s election in 2017, government debt has soared by over €1 trillion. Key factors include costly social programmes, emergency spending, and ongoing budget gaps.
The deficit for 2024 hit €168.6 billion, or 5.8 percent of GDP, almost double the EU’s 3 percent cap. Interest on the debt now eats up about 7 percent of government spending, with forecasts putting annual costs above €100 billion by 2030. Many critics point to Macron’s policies on social support, green spending, and pro-business reforms as reasons for the strain.
Macron’s approach has mixed free-market ideas with a safety net for citizens. He cut taxes for businesses and top earners to drive investment, but also dramatically increased spending during the COVID-19 pandemic and as energy prices spiked after Russia invaded Ukraine. These moves steadied the economy temporarily but required more borrowing.
The headline 2023 pension reform lifted the retirement age from 62 to 64, aiming to rein in spending. This sparked heated protests, notably from the “gilets jaunes,” showing deep frustration with budget restraint. Calls for freezing welfare and cutting public holidays, the centrepiece of Bayrou’s failed plan, only fuelled further anger and led to his fall from power.
Macron’s Centrist Vision
From the opposition, Le Pen’s National Rally wants less spending on immigration and a lower contribution to the EU, while the Socialists focus on higher taxes for the wealthiest to boost public services. Both groups reject Macron’s centrist vision.
This leaves Lecornu with the difficult task of bringing lawmakers together. Political expert Nicole Bacharan summed up the situation, noting that Macron had pushed for economic and social reforms but now faces chaos after his snap election last year left parliament split.
Reactions to Lecornu’s appointment have been mixed. Supporters see him as capable and experienced, having worked across political divides. He is known for building bridges, and even shared a private dinner with Marine Le Pen last year, which hints at possible dialogue with the National Rally that now holds 138 seats.
Socialists, though, have already stated they will not support Lecornu or his direction. The far-left France Unbowed has started working on a new no-confidence motion, but it is unclear if the National Rally will back it or seek budget negotiations instead.
Financial confidence is slipping. Investors now view France as a bigger risk, with the cost of French government borrowing topping that of Spain, Portugal, and Greece. Fitch Ratings plans to review France’s credit rating on 12 September, and a downgrade looks likely if the deadlock continues.
France Heading for Bankruptcy
Higher borrowing costs could further weaken the country’s financial position. Douglas Webber, from INSEAD, warned that unless parliament agrees on a plan to raise taxes or cut spending, France’s deficit will keep growing, and the government will come under even more market pressure.
Public frustration is building fast. A group called “Bloquons Tout” plans countrywide protests on 10 September, while trade unions will strike a week later. Their anger reminds many of the Yellow Vest movement of 2018 and 2019, when fuel taxes and economic hardship triggered major unrest.
Many French people are now more focused on inflation, safety, and immigration than on the state’s debts. These concerns make it even harder for leaders to push through tough financial reforms.
By choosing Lecornu, Macron aims to stick with his economic plans, despite widespread opposition. But with his popularity at a low point and another presidential vote set for 2027, he faces dwindling support.
Previous centrist prime ministers, including Gabriel Attal, Michel Barnier, and Bayrou, struggled to unite parliament or restore confidence. Some experts think Macron could need another early parliamentary election, though current polling suggests this could help Le Pen’s party, an outcome Macron wants to avoid.
Lecornu’s new role will not be easy. He needs to rebuild trust in parliament, ease social unrest, and fix the public finances, all while pursuing Macron’s reform agenda. The scale of the challenge is huge and the outcome uncertain.
For now, France faces a tense period where its political and economic direction remains in doubt, with the risk of deeper financial troubles looming over the nation.
