BANGKOK – As Songkran draws closer in mid-April, many farmers in Thailand are growing uneasy about a possible shortage of urea fertilizer. This key farm input helps crops grow well, and concerns are building over rising shipping costs, strong reliance on Middle East imports, and mixed messages from the government.
Farmers need urea just before and during the wet season planting. So, any supply delay or price spike could cut yields and strain household income across Thailand’s main rice-growing areas.
Urea gives plants the nitrogen they need to grow leaves and form grain. In Thailand, it accounts for about 36% of all fertilizer use, especially in rice, sugarcane, and cassava farming.
Most farmers apply urea after seedlings begin to establish. Without enough fertilizer, crops weaken, and harvests often shrink. Rice, which is both a staple food and a major export for Thailand, stands to take the biggest hit.
Experts say steady access to fertilizer helps keep crop output stable. If supplies tighten now, food prices could rise later in the year.
Thailand’s Heavy Dependence on Middle East Imports
Thailand imports about 95% of its chemical fertilizer, or around 5 to 6 million tons each year. A large share comes from the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia serving as the country’s main source of urea.
In 2025, Thailand imported 2.2 million tons of fertilizer from the region, equal to 34% of total imports. Nitrogen-based products, including urea, made up about half of that volume.
Most shipments travel by sea through the Strait of Hormuz. Because of recent tensions in the Middle East, concerns have grown over shipping delays and possible route disruptions. At the same time, higher fuel prices are adding to the cost of every shipment.
One opposition lawmaker said that, by early March, importers and producers were holding only limited stock. As a result, debate has grown over whether current supplies can cover demand through Songkran.
Higher Transport Costs Are Adding More Pressure
Fuel prices have increased amid global uncertainty. In turn, shipping firms are passing those added costs on to buyers, which is pushing fertilizer prices higher in local markets.
Retailers in provinces such as Buriram and Nakhon Ratchasima say prices have risen by 50 to 100 baht per 50-kg bag. Some farmers are already paying more than 1,000 baht per bag, even after subsidies.
If prices stay high for too long, many farmers may cut back on fertilizer use. That usually leads to lower yields, especially in rain-fed areas across the Northeast and Central Plains.
Government Stock Levels and Mixed Signals
Government officials say fertilizer supplies remain stable for now. As of January 2026, total chemical fertilizer stocks stood at 1.52 million tons. Urea made up 320,000 tons of that total, or about 6.5 million bags, which officials say is enough for more than two months under normal demand.
The government also expects another 100,000 tons of urea from Saudi Arabia soon. If that shipment arrives as planned, total urea supplies would rise to about 8.5 million bags, which officials say should last until August.
Still, opposition lawmakers are pushing back. Democrat Party MP Chaiyachana Dechdecho pointed to changing official claims, from early assurances of strong supply to later warnings of a possible shortage by April. Kla Tham Party MP Pai Leeke said that only 138,000 tons of the key 46-0-0 urea formula were available as of March 10.
Because of those conflicting reports, many farmers don’t know whether they should buy early or wait.
What This Could Mean for Farmers
Songkran is a time for family reunions and the Thai New Year. For farmers, though, it also marks the lead-up to main-season rice planting.
Many growers prepare fields and purchase supplies in the weeks before the holiday. So, if fertilizer becomes scarce at that point, some may have to delay planting or cut costs in ways that hurt production.
Pramote Charoensilp of the Thai Farmers Association warned that prices could climb even more if Middle East tensions continue into May. Farmers are already dealing with high fuel costs for irrigation pumps.
In places like Khon Kaen and Nakhon Ratchasima, shop owners say some fertilizer stocks are already thinning as peak demand gets closer.
- Crop yields could fall because weak plants produce less rice per rai.
- Production costs could keep rising, even for farmers getting subsidized bags.
- Small farmers could face tighter income because many already work with thin margins.
- Food prices could move higher later if rice and vegetable harvests come in lower.
What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts at Krungthai COMPASS say Thailand remains exposed to outside shocks. Since the country imports almost all of its fertilizer, any disruption abroad can quickly affect local supply and prices.
Recent urea price jumps, up 30% to 50% in some markets, reflect tighter supply and more expensive shipping. On some routes, global urea prices have climbed toward $700 per ton.
Retailers also worry that panic buying could make the problem worse if the situation drags on. Meanwhile, the government has warned sellers not to overcharge and says it will take legal action against price gouging.
Some analysts and industry voices want Thailand to broaden its options faster. Suggested steps include expanding organic alternatives, finding new supplier countries, and supporting domestic production over time.
Possible Steps to Reduce the Pressure
In the short term, officials could help by:
- speeding up approved imports from trusted suppliers,
- extending or raising fertilizer subsidies for small farmers,
- giving clear and regular updates on stock levels, and
- closely tracking retail prices in rural areas.
Over the longer term, experts say Thailand needs to reduce its reliance on imports. That could include pilot projects for green ammonia and better farming methods that help growers use fertilizer more efficiently.
The Commerce Ministry says it is watching developments in the Middle East closely. At the same time, officials are urging farmers not to panic-buy and to plan purchases carefully.
Farmers in the Northeast say they feel squeezed from all sides. One rice grower near Buriram said every extra baht spent on fertilizer cuts into already weak profits from the last harvest.
Another farmer in Kamphaeng Phet said he worries about supporting his family if yields fall. “We wait for rain and good prices, but inputs keep rising,” he said.
Farm groups are calling on the government to move quickly so farmers can head into Songkran with less uncertainty and focus on the season ahead.
Agriculture still supports millions of Thai households, and rice exports bring in important foreign income. If production drops, the effects could spread from rural spending to national food security.
At the same time, higher farm costs can feed into consumer prices for rice, vegetables, and other everyday foods. With global risks still hanging over trade and energy markets, keeping fertilizer available and affordable matters far beyond the farm.
