BEIJING – Air travel between China and Japan is facing a major setback. By late January 2026, every scheduled flight on 49 routes connecting mainland China and Japan was canceled for February, based on data from the Chinese flight tracking platform Flight Master.
The change affects a large number of travelers and lands just as Beijing renewed calls for citizens to avoid trips to Japan, including during the Lunar New Year travel rush.
The February cancellations build on steps that started in late 2025, after diplomatic friction linked to Taiwan-related remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Chinese officials and state media have pointed to public safety concerns in Japan, reports of crimes involving Chinese nationals, and earthquake-related warnings issued in Japan as reasons behind the shift.
How the Diplomatic Dispute Fed Into Flight Cuts
The current drop in flights can be traced to November 2025. During a press event, Prime Minister Takaichi described a possible Taiwan crisis as an “existential crisis” for Japan and suggested Japan’s Self-Defense Forces could become involved.
Beijing treated the comments as interference in what it calls its core Taiwan interests, since China claims Taiwan as its territory. China’s Foreign Ministry responded with sharp statements, and state media increased its criticism of Tokyo.
By mid-November 2025, Chinese airlines started offering no-fee changes and refunds for Japan flights, and cancellations began to spread. Early coverage pointed to 12 routes being paused, with airlines citing weak demand. Analysts, however, noted how closely the timing matched Beijing’s travel advisories and other pressure steps, including tighter limits on Japanese seafood imports.
The disruption grew through December 2025 and January 2026. Flight data recorded more than 2,195 cancellations for January 2026, cutting scheduled capacity by about 40.4%. By the end of January, the cancellation rate for that month reached 47.2%, which was 7.8 points higher than in December.
February’s full cancellations on 49 routes, including high-traffic links such as Beijing Daxing to Osaka Kansai (113 flights) and Shenzhen to Hokkaido’s New Chitose (13 flights), point to a near shutdown of many leisure-heavy services.
Big Airlines Expand Refund and Rebooking Options
China’s three main state carriers, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines, posted notices on January 26, 2026, extending special ticket rules for Japan-related travel.
Tickets issued before that date for trips between March 29 and October 24, 2026, to or from Japan (including connecting itineraries) can be refunded or changed without fees. The extension pushes the policy through much of the spring and summer travel season and signals that airlines expect the disruption to last.
Other Chinese airlines, including Hainan Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, and Sichuan Airlines, announced similar policies. The biggest impact falls on China-operated flights, though the broader drop in demand can also affect Japan Airlines (JAL) and All Nippon Airways (ANA) through weaker two-way travel flows and possible schedule changes tied to airport slots.
Tourism Hit Spreads Across Japan
China has been Japan’s top source of inbound visitors for years. In the first nine months of 2025, almost 7.5 million travelers from mainland China visited Japan, roughly one-quarter of total foreign arrivals. That flow fell sharply late in the year.
In December, Japan recorded about 348,700 mainland Chinese visitors, down 40% year over year and 35% from November. Industry watchers tie the decline to fewer available flights, safety worries, and travelers choosing other destinations such as South Korea and Thailand.
Areas that depend heavily on tourism, including Osaka, Kyoto, Hokkaido, and Okinawa, are feeling the squeeze. Hotels, tour firms, and retailers have reported widespread booking losses, with some describing it as a harsh season for tourism.
At the same time, Chinese travelers have been shifting toward warmer trips in Southeast Asia, which is redirecting spending away from Japan.
The strain does not stop with tourism. Japan counts China as its largest trading partner, and fewer business and personal trips can deepen existing stress in trade, investment, and supply chains.
What Beijing Says Is Driving the Slowdown
Chinese authorities have offered several reasons for the travel pullback. A January 26 advisory from the Foreign Ministry warned of “deteriorating public security,” including reports of rising crimes involving Chinese citizens, as well as natural disaster concerns tied to earthquakes. State media repeated similar claims and painted Japan as less safe during a period of worsening political relations.
Outside China, critics and some social media commentators have described the flight cuts as economic pressure connected to the Taiwan dispute. Beijing has rejected the idea that politics is the driver and has said airlines are responding to market conditions, with lower demand linked to public caution. Still, the close timing of official warnings, airline policy updates, and flight data shifts has fueled the view that the move is coordinated.
With the Lunar New Year nearing, the widespread cancellations could leave Japan even more cut off from one of its most important visitor markets. Analysts expect Chinese airlines to move capacity toward Southeast Asia, Australia, and domestic routes.
A rebound likely depends on a cooling of tensions, but no quick reset appears likely while positions on Taiwan remain unchanged.
Travelers are being urged to watch airline notices closely and consider coverage for trip disruptions. For now, the skies between China and Japan look set to stay quiet, reflecting a relationship under pressure even as the two economies remain deeply connected.
