BANGKOK – As tensions rise in the Middle East, Thailand’s Ministry of Energy is working to ease public concern over fuel shortages and prices. Officials say the country has enough oil in reserve and enough refining capacity to meet local demand. Still, they also warned that pump prices won’t stay low forever, because global oil prices are climbing even with subsidies in place.

Global markets have been jumpy as the situation overseas shifts day to day. Because of that, Thailand has moved quickly to protect local supply and slow down price shocks for consumers.

Key points from the Ministry of Energy

Supplies remain adequate: The ministry says Thailand has enough oil for daily use, with reserves that can cover extended periods without immediate shortages.
Refineries can cover local needs: Thailand refines about 170 million liters per day, while domestic demand sits near 130 million liters a day, leaving a cushion.
Exports are paused: The government has stopped oil exports, except for limited shipments to Laos (about 7 million liters per day), so more product stays in Thailand.
Diesel price cap in place: Diesel is capped at 29.94 baht per liter for an initial 15 days, funded through the Oil Fuel Fund.
Short-term support from major retailers: PTT Oil and Retail Business Plc (OR) and related firms say they will hold diesel and gasohol prices steady for now.

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul spoke after meetings with senior officials and energy leaders. He stressed a “Thailand First” approach to energy security. He also pointed to the extra 30 to 40 million liters per day of refining output. If imports face long delays, that surplus could help fill gaps by shifting more supply to the local market.

What’s driving the concern, and how Thailand is responding

The government’s steps follow recent developments in the Middle East. Reports of actions tied to Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have raised concerns because the route is a key channel for global oil shipments. Thailand imports most of its crude, and recent data puts roughly 92% of crude supply linked to the Middle East, so any disruption can quickly affect costs and planning.

To respond, the Ministry of Energy, including Deputy Permanent Secretary Veerapat Kiatfuengfoo and other officials, held urgent talks with oil traders. The goal is to keep supplies steady and speed up sourcing from other areas, such as the United States, West Africa, and Malaysia. At the same time, agencies are putting contingency plans into action.

The reserve picture also looks strong on paper. Combined crude and refined stocks, including shipments already in transit, were reported at about 7.66 billion liters in early March. That volume could cover around 60 days under cautious estimates if no new imports arrive. It includes required reserves and volumes already under procurement.

Officials are also urging the public not to panic-buy or stockpile fuel. They say hoarding is illegal and unnecessary, since the supply chain is still running and deliveries remain stable.

Price caps, subsidies, and what happens next

Even with solid supplies, Thailand can’t fully block global price pressure. The Oil Fuel Fund can soften increases for a while. However, officials say local retail prices must still move with global benchmarks over time, or the funding burden becomes too heavy.

For now, the 15-day diesel cap at 29.94 baht per liter gives short-term breathing room, especially for transport and logistics businesses that depend on diesel. After that window, the government says it will review what support measures should continue.

Large fuel sellers have lined up with the policy:

PTT Group and PTT Oil and Retail Business (OR) said they won’t raise diesel or gasohol prices in the near term. They are coordinating with the ministry and tracking market changes closely.
Bangchak has also indicated it will keep prices steady until further notice.

At the same time, some foreign retailers, including Shell and Caltex, have already raised prices. That difference has pushed the government to tighten enforcement of caps for eligible sellers, using Oil Fuel Fund compensation where applicable.

What higher oil prices could mean for the economy?

If global oil keeps rising, Thailand could feel the impact across the economy:

Transport costs could climb, and that often pushes up the price of everyday goods.
Inflation pressure may build, especially if fuel stays high for weeks.
Power generation costs may rise, so authorities may lean more on coal-fired and hydropower plants where possible.
Officials estimate that each $10 jump in crude oil could add about 2 baht per liter to domestic fuel prices.

Economists say the moment highlights Thailand’s exposure to import risks. Over the longer term, the focus may shift toward broader supply options, stronger reserves, spot LNG purchases from outside the Middle East, and updated national energy planning.

For now, the message stays balanced. Thailand says it has enough oil on hand and enough refining capacity to avoid shortages. Yet officials also want the public to prepare for higher prices if global markets continue to rise.

Why this matters for Thailand

Thailand has strong refining capability, but it still depends heavily on imported crude. That mix makes energy security a constant concern when overseas conflict disrupts shipping routes or pushes prices higher. The current response, including export limits, price caps, and subsidy support, shows how fast the government can act when pressure builds.

The Ministry of Energy says it will keep watching reserves, retail pricing, and new supply options. Public cooperation, especially avoiding hoarding, remains a key part of keeping the system stable.