BANGKOK — Chinese New Year 2026 is set to trigger a sharp re-routing of Chinese outbound travel, with Malaysia, Dubai, Singapore, and Thailand capturing a disproportionate share of holiday visitors. Meanwhile, travel to the United States, Japan, and Europe will decline during the February holiday.
The shift in tourism will also boost housing investment towards these open, short-haul markets in the months after the holiday, said Juwai IQI Co-Founder and Group CEO Kashif Ansari in comments released today.
“Malaysia is the biggest winner in our forecast,” said Mr. Ansari, “followed by Dubai, Singapore, and Thailand. Of these countries, the greatest number of Chinese visitors will travel to Malaysia, while the biggest spenders will head to Dubai.
“On the other hand, destinations for which the Chinese government has issued travel advisories will see sharp declines in Chinese New Year visits. In particular, that means the USA and Japan. Chinese New Year travel is especially sensitive to travel advisories because no one wants to take risks with their big family holiday of the year.
Chinese visits to Europe will be down. Europe is a desirable destination, but higher costs and longer travel times, as well as the fact that winter is typically the off-season for travel there, will dampen Chinese visitor numbers this New Year holiday.
“All four of the winning destinations this holiday season offer visa-free access to Chinese short-term visitors, family-friendly pricing, and, in the case of the Southeast Asian nations, short flight times.
“Southeast Asia already captures 46% of Chinese traveller intentions, according to recent consumer surveys, led by Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Europe gets only 10%, and the UK only 5%.
“Data from Flight Manager, a Chinese aviation data and flight-tracking platform, shows that almost half of Chinese flying overseas during the Chinese New Year will be going to Southeast Asia, while the number of mainland Chinese flying to Japan will be down more than 40% year-on-year.”
Home Buying Context (CNY 2026)
Mr. Ansari said, “Chinese New Year is the most concentrated period of international travel in the Chinese calendar. About 3.8 million Chinese went abroad during the 2025 Lunar New Year holiday.
“Tourism and home buying are closely linked, but they are not one-for-one. Instead, the markets Chinese families visit most also tend to be the top housing markets, whether for a second home, student use, or a long-term base.
“Chinese purchasers typically make multiple in-person visits before completing a foreign home purchase and use holiday trips to assess neighbourhoods, schools, safety, and lifestyle fit. As a result, markets that attract higher volumes of Chinese visitors during major holidays, such asthe Chinese New Year, consistently see more transactions in subsequent months.
“For Chinese New Year 2026, we expect the same directional pattern in housing enquiries as in tourism: stronger interest in Southeast Asia and Dubai, and softer momentum for the U.S., Japan, and Europe.”
Table 1: Chinese New Year 2026 Chinese Visitor Forecast
Source: Juwai IQI
| Destination | CNY 2026 vs CNY 2025 | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Japan | -35% to -45% | Sharp decline |
| United States | -30% to -40% | Sharp decline |
| Europe | -10% to -20% | Mild decline |
| Thailand | +10% to +30% | Recovery from a weak 2024 |
| Singapore | +15% to +30% | Strong growth |
| Dubai | +25% to +40% | Strong growth |
| Malaysia | +30% to +50% | Very strong growth |
Malaysia
“I’d like to look at each of these destinations in more detail, starting with Malaysia,” said Mr. Ansari.
“We expect Chinese travel to Malaysia during Chinese New Year 2026 to increase by around 30% to 50% compared with 2025. Malaysia will be one of the strongest global beneficiaries of the holiday period, in part because of the government’s Visit Malaysia 2026 campaign, which has already proven successful.
“Malaysia welcomed 1.4 million Chinese visitors in the first four months of 2025, whichis a 38% year-on-year increase. Authorities have set a 2026 target of 10 million Chinese visitors, up 43% from 2025.
“Visa-free access, a four-hour flight time from much of China, and a bilingual Chinese–English environment further lower barriers to travel.
“We believe Malaysia fits Chinese New Year travel patterns unusually well. It works for multigenerational families, offers strong food, shopping, and cultural experiences, and has invested heavily in promotion through Chinese OTAs, airlines, and influencers.
Chinese also lead foreign real estate investment in Malaysia and are the most numerous participants in the long-term residency visa programme, and account for 57% of MM2H visa holders.
“We expect the holiday uplift in visits to translate into a higher volume of housing enquiries and inspections through Q1, even if transaction completions follow later in the year.”
Dubai, UAE
Chinese travel to Dubai during the Chinese New Year 2026 will rise by 25% to 40% compared with 2025 in our forecast. That increase will build on already strong momentum. Chinese arrivals to Dubai grew by 31% in 2024, and booking data from 2025 suggests a further increase of roughly 27% that year.
“Dubai is compelling because of its visa-free access, abundant flight capacity, and competitive pricing. These factors have made visiting easier at exactly the moment Chinese outbound travel is again accelerating.
“Dubai is also a good fit for Chinese New Year travel. It offers warm weather, world-class shopping, luxury hotels, and short, flexible stays that suit family travel and high-spending holidaymakers alike.
“In our view, Dubai has become a safe and aspirational long-haul alternative for travellers who in past years might have gone to Japan or the United States.
“We also expect Dubai to keep capturing Chinese housing interest through the holiday period, because it sits at the intersection of tourism, residency planning, and investor-friendly property rules.”
Japan
“We forecast a 35%–45% decline in Chinese travel to Japan during the Chinese New Year period of 2026 compared to a year earlier. That follows a sharp decline in Chinese visits to Japan in recent months.
“Beijing has issued a formal advisory telling Chinese citizens to avoid travel to Japan. At least 40% of flights between China and Japan have been removed from the schedule.
“As a result, Chinese arrivals dropped 45% year-on-year in December 2025, and we expect a similar performance during the holiday.
“Record numbers of global visitors will go to Japan, but Chinese visitor numbers will sharply decline.”
Table 2: Southeast Asia Already Captures 46% of Chinese Travelers
Source: Juwai IQI, China Trading Desk, Skift. Q: What will be the destination of your future outbound travel? (Multiple selections)
| Rank | Destination | Share (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Singapore | 18% |
| 3 | South Korea | 13% |
| 2 | Malaysia | 14% |
| 4 | Europe | 10% |
| 8 | United Kingdom | 5% |
| 7 | Japan | 8% |
| 4 | Thailand | 10% |
| 6 | Australia | 9% |
| 9 | United States | 4% |
| 9 | Indonesia | 4% |
Europe
“We expect Chinese travel to Europe during the Chinese New Year 2026 to fall by 10% to 20% from 2025’s numbers. No single factor, like a travel advisor,y is behind this decline. Europe has steadily slipped down the priority list for Chinese tourists and investors, and the destination now ranks below Southeast Asia in destination preference surveys.
“High-end, niche travel to Europe continues to be strong. Even so, the European winter is the off-season for Chinese visitors.
“Chinese make up 8% of overseas buyers in Prime Central London, and Chinese are the top buyer group linked to golden visas in both Portugal and Greece, which operate Europe’s two largest residency by investment programmes.
Thailand
“Juwai IQI expects Chinese travel to Thailand during the Chinese New Year 2026 to increase by 15% to 30% in a rebound from a weak base. Chinese arrivals in 2025 fell well below pre-COVID norms, which has left room for recovery in 2026.
“Thailand’s Tourism Authority has publicly targeted a 40% year-on-year rise in total Chinese arrivals in 2026 and is investing in a marketing campaign to make that possible.
“Chinese New Year Holiday travel will rebound first, we believe, resulting in a solid recovery, although not yet a full return to earlier peak levels.
“Chinese still make up the largest foreign homebuyer group in Thailand, both by number and value of purchases. Citizens of China acquired an estimated 1,700 homes in Thailand in 2025, according to data from the government’s Real Estate Information Centre.[16]
Singapore
“Juwai IQI expects Chinese travel to Singapore during the Chinese New Year 2026 to rise by around 15% to 30% compared with 2025. China is already Singapore’s largest source market, with 2.93 million Chinese visitors recorded in the first 11 months of last year. Arrivals in November alone were up 16.5% year on year.
“Chinese New Year is deeply embedded in Singapore’s cultural calendar, making the city-state a natural choice for holiday travel from Mainland China.
“Growth is likely to be strong but measured. We have to recognize that Singapore has a smaller total capacity for tourists, is a more expensive market, and typically sees visitors stay for shorter periods. For these reasons, Singapore won’t be able to match Malaysia’s scale of growth.
“Even so, the city-state is well positioned to capture short breaks, first-time travellers, and family trips linked to Chinese New Year festivities. That’s why we expect a strong uplift in Chinese arrivals in CNY 2026.
“Due to high stamp-duty barriers, foreign purchases of Singapore homes have plummeted from their highs of prior years. However, Singapore remains an aspirational market, especially with higher-net-worth Chinese.
Singapore granted citizenship to nearly 23,000 foreigners in 2024, highlighting a route many Chinese use to attain residency and permission to purchase a home in the Lion City. Mainland Chinese are also consistently the most numerous holders of employment passes, S-Passes, and permanent residency.”
About Juwai IQI
Juwai IQI is the international real estate technology group that powers property transactions and ownership locally and globally. Juwai IQI transacted more than 48,000 properties in 2024, advertises US$4 trillion of property from 111 countries, and generates 10 million monthly consumer engagements.
The company offers real estate marketers an end-to-end marketing and sales solution that integrates its super-app, its IQI Global network of more than 60,000 real estate agents in 33 countries, and its online property marketplaces juwai.com (global property portal in Chinese) and juwai.Asia (Asia-wide portal for global real estate).
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