BANGKOK – Colliers International, a top commercial real estate and investment firm in Thailand, says Bangkok’s condo market will likely continue its downturn from last year. Lower transfer and mortgage fees, along with eased loan-to-value rules, have not been enough to offset weak economic conditions and low foreign interest.
Phattarachai Taweewong, head of research at Colliers Thailand, shared with the Bangkok Post that while government incentives and looser monetary policy have given the market a small boost, the overall effect has been modest.
“Affordability remains a big problem, and credit remains tight,” he said. “Banks still have funds and support developers, but stricter lending and high household debt have made it tough for buyers to get loans.”
From January to March 2025, new condo launches in Bangkok reached 6,306 units across 14 projects, worth a combined 19.8 billion baht. This was a 72% jump from the same period in 2024, but still 35.1% less than the previous quarter.
The bulk of these new condos were in the mass market sector, priced below 100,000 baht per square metre, making up 60.5% of the total. High-end units above 200,000 baht per square metre accounted for just 3.1%.
During the same period, 4,045 units were sold, resulting in a take-up rate of 64.2%. This was 2.5% lower than the year before, reflecting ongoing weak demand.
Many buyers held off on purchases, waiting for the transfer fee reduction. Some improvement is expected in the second quarter.
Colliers expects about 25,000 new condo launches in 2025, a 14.2% increase over last year. However, the take-up rate may fall by 3 to 5% because of ongoing economic worries.
“Recovery in the coming years depends on real changes, especially reducing household debt and easing lending rules,” Mr Phattarachai said. “If not, access to mortgages will stay limited, and the gap between supply and demand could widen.”
Foreign investors are also expected to reduce their activity, not only due to the shaky global economy but also falling confidence among overseas buyers.
Kasikorn Research Center predicts that 2025 will be the first year in three years with a drop in foreign condo transfers, down by 2.6%. Earlier, they had expected a 1.2% decrease.
Confidence has slipped after recent events, including safety concerns among Chinese buyers and a recent earthquake, which may affect how people view high-rise condos. In the first quarter, foreign condo transfers dropped 0.5% year-on-year to 3,919 units.
Chinese buyers, the biggest group of foreign condo purchasers, bought 1,481 units, down 7% from the previous year. Meanwhile, buyers from Myanmar, the second-largest group, increased their purchases by 12% to 439 units.
