China and Xi Jinping Will Face Five Major Challenges in 2023

It’s difficult to recall a more turbulent conclusion to any recent year in China – and forecasting the country is seldom easy. Grid asked many experts for their perspectives on what China will face in 2023 — or, at the least, questions.

In 2022, several things were predictable: President Xi – Jinping’s appointment to a third term at the October Communist Party Congress seemed almost certain, as were turbulent U.S.-China ties and a real estate crisis.

But China’s severe zero-covid policy was taking root; few expected how it would upend life for millions of Chinese. Even fewer predicted China would have its largest protests in years.

How China tackles the difficult unwinding of zero-covid seems to be the country’s most significant topic.

Almost everything else, from the economy to climate action, rests on how smoothly the government and nation go from stringent limitations to a full reopening.

Our list omits U.S.-China relations and potential breakthroughs in technologies like electric vehicle batteries and semiconductors, but it includes pandemics, internal politics, and China’s economic growth (or lack thereof).

Answers to these questions will reverberate throughout Chin and possibly the world.

1. How will China manage its way out of zero-covid?

In the latter days of 2022, covid instances have increased in Beijing and other large cities, as with omicron. The increase the government insisted on preventing for three years has arrived.

Grid noted that experts believe the healthcare system can’t handle the rapid spike. The shift from zero-covid is messy at best. The present spike is just the start, say analysts.

Yanzhong Huang, senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, told Grid that the worst is yet.

China’s population is more susceptible to the virus since so few people have been infected, and its weaker immunizations don’t offer as much protection as U.S. mRNA doses.

The Chinese government has ordered hospitals to double ICU capacity by December, but experts say beds and staffing won’t be enough. Chinese New Year, the country’s most important event, begins on Jan. 21, 2023.

During the holidays, hundreds of millions of people visit family. It’s been a scaled-down celebration for three years;

lifting limitations means that pent-up travel might be a statewide superspreader event, driving the virus’s spread to rural areas where China’s healthcare system is even weaker.

2. Will China’s economy recover?

How fast could economic recovery be? That’s China’s next major question in 2023, and Huang says the answer is tied to zero-covid issues.

Zero-covid has been a well-documented drag on the economy in the past year; companies suffered when workers were kept out, and Chinese consumers cut back on purchasing as they lost wages and jobs.

GDP growth in 2022 will be around 3%, below the 5.5 percent objective policymakers set. It’s hoped that eliminating lockdowns and other limitations will liberate the Chinese economy.

According to the Wall Street Journal, a Politburo official is planning for a GDP target exceeding 5% in 2023. The official objective won’t be disclosed until the National People’s Congress meets in March.

But several international financial organizations are skeptical. The World Bank recently projected 4.3% GDP growth for China in 2023, indicating the expanding covid wave’s impact.

3. Will Xi Jinping’s hold on power weaken?

This question felt odd not long ago. Xi’s control seemed unassailable before the November protests. At October’s Communist Party Congress, he was granted another term as party chief and new leaders were placed on the Politburo Standing Committee.

Xi’s new leaders are all devoted. Then came the protests, which were unprecedented during his reign in terms of geography and content. People in the streets also chanted, Xi – Jinping, step down!

Xi appears to have quieted the grassroots opposition by agreeing to end zero-covid. Some experts said Xi may have been too hasty in responding to protesters, shifting gears too dramatically.

In this view, Xi may have incorrectly believed the economic benefits of reopening — even a poorly planned reopening — would outweigh the costs.

Andrew Wedeman, director of Georgia State University’s China studies department, wonders if Xi overestimated public dissatisfaction with covid-zero and underestimated public fear of covid. He’ll suffer if the death toll is near the current estimates.

4. Will protesters take to the streets again?

According to Chinese political experts, dissatisfaction with Xi and the post-zero-covid reopening may lead to additional protests in 2023. Recent crackdowns on protestors led some to conclude large-scale unrest is improbable.

Police began randomly examining phones after the November protests for VPNs and blacklisted apps like Telegram. Some demonstrators are still being held after being apprehended and questioned.

Yaqui Wang, the senior China researcher at Human Rights Watch, told Grid that the government might increase punishments if there are more demonstrators next year.

Beyond the repression, the demonstrators’ aim was mostly accomplished. That’s double-edged. Given their prosperity and repression, it would be uncommon for young people or migrant laborers to step out on the street.

A UC San Diego professor remarked. James Palmer, the deputy editor of Foreign Policy, said a big healthcare failure during the impending surge might spark public resentment.

5. Will China make progress on addressing climate change?

In 2022, China’s climate efforts took a backseat to lockdowns, protests, and economic woes.

If zero-covid caused economic challenges, such concerns led to backsliding on important targets, including a deadline to peak emissions from the carbon-intensive construction materials industry by 2025, to 2030.

Li Shuo, Greenpeace East Asia’s global policy adviser, told Grid that China’s covid situation had caused great uncertainty. This affects everything, including the country’s environmental strategy.

Climate change benefits? The economic downturn means China’s emissions will likely fall in 2022, and the country will likely set a record for newly installed solar energy capacity this year.

China’s 2023 climate results will depend on its growth and economic recovery. How soon the country returns to normal will determine when environmental issues are prioritized, said Li.

Climate watchers are encouraged by the government’s recent message that consumption will drive the recovery.

Growth fueled by consumption and services has a lighter carbon footprint than China’s conventional practice of depending on building and heavy industries. This increases CO2 emissions.

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