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Cheltenham Festival: Key trends to look out for in the Arkle Challenge Trophy

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Cheltenham Festival

The Cheltenham Festival is just a few sleeps away and jump racing fans all across the United Kingdom and Ireland will already be like kids on Christmas Eve as the iconic racecourse at Prestbury Park is set to reopen its doors to spectators for the first time since the 2020 renewal of the prestigious meeting went ahead only days before the first national lockdown.

The buzz in the Cotswolds will be electric over the course of the four-day Festival, but there will be something special about being there for the opening card on Tuesday, 15th March. Standing on those historic concourses, surrounded by over 70,000 fellow racing lovers really will feel like normality has been resumed once and for all.

Punters will already be scouring the internet looking for tips and the best offers before they bet on Cheltenham 2022, but the opening races of the meeting are looking incredibly hard to predict — with little to separate the favourites in the ante-post markets for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and the Arkle Challenge Trophy.

The latter is the biggest race of the season for two-mile juveniles, but picking a winner out of Edwardstone, Riviere D’etel and Blue Lord will be no easy feat. So, read on as we take a look at the stats and trends that could help make your selection for the Arkle that bit easier…

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Age

A key thing to look out for in most races at Festival, is the age bracket you want to factor in when checking the Arkle card is six to seven. 11 of the last 12 winners were either six or seven, with Sizing Europe the last eight-year-old to win the race back in 2010. That doesn’t make for good reading for Edwardstone (8) or Riviere D’etel (5) backers, with Blue Lord being the prime age (7).

Odds

Just seven of the last 12 renewals of the Arkle have been won by the favourite. It’s worth noting though that all four of the editions between 2015 and 2018 were won by the market leaders, helping bolster that stat a bit. Interestingly, nine of the last 12 winners were in the top three of the betting — which could once again be used to build a case for the Willie Mullins-trained Blue Lord, who could help edge the Irish even closer to another big win in the Prestbury Cup odds.

Form

All of the last 12 winners of the Arkle have gone to Cheltenham Festival on the back of a win, which isn’t good news for Riviere D’etel, who has come second in his last two races. Three of those victors competed in the Irish Arkle at Leopardstown in their last outing before the Festival and they all went on to win the two-mile novices’ race. Guess who competed in, and won, the Irish version of the race back in February? Blue Lord! It really is looking good for Mullins’ horse thus far.

Other things to consider

  • Previous Cheltenham Festival form – All but one of the last 12 winners have at least one prior run at Prestbury Park, which applies to all three of the aforementioned horses.
  • Distance – Nine of the last 12 winners had at least five runs over no less than two miles, which again matches the record of all three.
  • Chase form – 11 of the last 12 winners had at least two previous outings over fences. All 12 had at least one chase win — nine out of the 12 has at least two. Riviere D’etel and Blue Lord boast three victories, while Edwardstone has four.

The latter trends only further prove that this is going to be a very close encounter, but going by the first few pointers, we are going to say that Blue Lord is going to edge it. Add in the fact that Mullins has won four of the last seven renewals of the Arkle if you need any more convincing!

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