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Asian Development Bank (ADB) Revises Down 2023 Economic Growth Forecast For Developing Asia
(CTN NEWS) – The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has revised its economic growth forecasts for developing Asia in 2023.
The ADB now expects economic growth in the region to be slightly lower than previously projected due to several factors, including weaknesses in China’s property sector and El Niño-related risks.
Here are the key details:
- 2023 Growth Forecast: The ADB has revised its growth forecast for developing Asia in 2023 to 4.7%, down from the previous projection of 4.8% that was made in July. This suggests a slight decrease in expected economic growth for the region this year.
- Composition of Developing Asia: It’s important to note that when they mention “developing Asia,” they are referring to a grouping of 46 economies in the Asia-Pacific region. This grouping does not include Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.
- 2024 Growth Forecast: On a more positive note, the ADB has revised the growth forecast for the following year (2024) slightly upwards to 4.8% from the previous estimate of 4.7%. This indicates that the ADB anticipates a slightly stronger economic performance for developing Asia in the coming year.
Overall, the revision in economic growth forecasts for developing Asia in 2023 reflects concerns related to the property sector in China and El Niño-related risks. However, there is some optimism for improved growth in 2024.
It’s important to keep in mind that economic forecasts can change based on evolving economic conditions and factors, so staying updated with reports from organizations like the ADB is essential for understanding regional economic trends.
ADB: Resilient Growth in Developing Asia Amidst Shifting Dynamics and Challenges
“We are witnessing resilient growth in the region, driven primarily by strong domestic consumption and investment, despite a decrease in external demand that has put a damper on export-oriented growth,” stated Albert Park, the Chief Economist at ADB, during a press conference.
The ADB has adjusted its growth projections for East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia downwards for this year. China and India are expected to achieve growth rates of 4.9% and 6.3%, respectively, slightly lower than the July forecasts of 5.0% and 6.4%.
The ADB’s report highlights that China’s property crisis “poses a downside risk and could potentially hinder regional growth.” However, the lender has maintained its 2024 growth forecasts for China and India at 4.5% and 6.7%, respectively.
While growth remains robust and inflationary pressures are receding in developing Asia, Park emphasized the importance of governments remaining vigilant in the face of numerous regional challenges, including concerns related to food security.
Inflation in developing Asia is expected to decrease to 3.6% this year, down from 4.4% the previous year, and continue to decline to 3.5% in 2024.
This provides central banks with some policy flexibility, but the ADB noted that the direction of future interest rate adjustments will vary among countries.
In summary, the region is experiencing resilient growth despite external challenges, but there are concerns related to China’s property crisis and the need for vigilance in addressing regional challenges.
Inflation is expected to decrease, providing some flexibility for central banks, but the direction of interest rate adjustments will vary.
GDP Growth (Percentage)
| Region | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 (APR) | 2023 (JULY) | 2023 (SEPT) | 2024 (APR) | 2024 (JULY) | 2024 (SEPT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caucasus and Central Asia | 5.8 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| East Asia | 7.9 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| China | 8.4 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| South Asia | 8.4 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| India | 9.1 | 7.2 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Southeast Asia | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Indonesia | 3.7 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
| Malaysia | 3.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| Myanmar | -5.9 | 2.0 | 2.8 | n/a | 2.8 | 3.2 | n/a | 3.2 |
| Philippines | 5.7 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 |
| Singapore | 8.9 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| Thailand | 1.5 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Vietnam | 2.6 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| The Pacific | -1.4 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| Developing Asia | 7.2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
Inflation (Percentage)
| Region | 2023 (APR) | 2023 (JULY) | 2023 (SEPT) | 2024 (APR) | 2024 (JULY) | 2024 (SEPT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caucasus and Central Asia | 10.6 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.0 | |
| East Asia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | |
| China | 1.0 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| South Asia | 8.1 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.6 | |
| India | 4.9 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | |
| Southeast Asia | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | |
| Indonesia | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | |
| Malaysia | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | |
| Myanmar | n/a | 14.0 | 8.2 | n/a | 8.2 | |
| Philippines | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |
| Singapore | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | |
| Thailand | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | |
| Vietnam | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 4.0 | |
| The Pacific | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | |
| Developing Asia | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
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